Redmond, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

213
FXUS66 KPDT 091018
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
318 AM PDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry and warm conditions will persist through the week

2. Breezy to windy through the gaps Sunday

3. Pattern shift midweek will bring cooler temperatures and chances
   of mountain showers and thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows some high clouds lingering over central an
north central OR. Otherwise, clear skies everywhere else. Even with
the lack of cloud cover, overnight temperatures will continue to be
5 degrees above seasonal normal with temperatures in the upper 40s
across much of the region with some isolated 30s (80-90% confidence).

Models show the upper level ridge to remain parked over the region.
This will keep the area under dry and warm conditions. Models show
Tuesday will be the warmest day of the period. In house comparison
tools show that temperatures will be upwards of 5 to 10 degrees
above normal increasing to 10-20 degrees above seasonal normal by
Tuesday. Saturday and Sunday HREF shows temperatures to be in the
upper 70s to low 80s with 80-90% of the HREF raw ensembles in
agreement. Moving into Monday, NBM raw ensembles show there to be 80-
90% confidence in temperatures remaining in the upper 70s to low 80s
across the region again. By Tuesday, ECMWF and GFS ensembles as well
as NBM ensembles all show 80-90% probabilities of temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s with isolated locations in central OR and the
Basin seeing u to near 91 degrees. This is 20-25 degrees above
seasonal normal.

An upper level shortwave will make its way across the forecast area
again Sunday with models showing another day of breezy to windy
conditions through the mountain gaps. 60-80% of the NBM raw
ensembles show Kittitas Valley and the Gorge seeing sustained winds
between 20-30 mph with gusts of 40-45 mph Sunday starting after 2 PM
and persisting through 9 PM. After the front passes, winds will turn
to typical diurnal winds under the ridge.

Lastly, a shift in the pattern midweek will lead to chances of
mountain showers and thunderstorms. Models show an upper level
system making its way on shore. Cluster ensembles show there to be a
bit of a timing and positing variance within the models. GFS has the
system coming in as a cutoff low to the south of the region while
the ECMWF and Canadian models have it coming in as a nit of a deeper
trough and over the area. Each scenario will lead to the breakdown
of the ridge and southwest winds aloft that will bring in warm air
advection. This will increase the chances of orographic
precipitation as well as thunderstorms. As of now, models are
showing 20-25% probabilities of thunderstorms over the OR Cascade
Wednesday before shifting to the eastern mountains and into Wallowa
County. NBM raw ensembles also show there is a 20-30% probability of
rain showers as well. Temperatures are also expected to decrease by
nearly 5 to 10 degrees as the system moves overhead. With the
uncertainty of the models and ensembles, confidence in the outcome
is low (20-30%). 90

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the forecasted period.
Winds are beginning to decrease across all TAF sites and
becoming diurnally driven with the shortwave passage. Winds will
remain diurnally driven through the period and below 6 kts.
CIGs are mainly 25kft to SKC. 90

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued high pressure over the region has kept the region dry
an warm. These conditions will remain through midweek. Models
show a breakdown in the ridge Tuesday which will lead to
increased instability across the area. Breezy conditions will
return Sunday with Kittitas Valley and the Gorge seeing winds of
20-30 mph and gusts between 40-45 with 60-80% confidence. Tuesday
is expected to be the driest day with widespread RHs in the
teens to low 20s with areas in central OR seeing single digits.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
PDT  76  49  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  76  52  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  80  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  80  52  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  80  50  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  76  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  83  45  81  39 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  76  45  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  80  44  89  44 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  83  54  77  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...82